VALLARTA SEASIDE PROPERTIESThe Bay Report: Puerto Vallarta & Banderas Bay Market Report
Half the listings do not exist yet
Nearly half of active inventory is pre-construction. Real supply is far tighter than the headline.
Prices up 8%, still cooling
Value per m² is flat and homes take 38% longer to sell. Up is not the same as hot.
22 months, not 32
Strip out pre-construction and existing-home supply is a third tighter than the raw number.
The market at a glance
These are settled residential sales across Puerto Vallarta and Banderas Bay for the twelve months ending July 2026, compared with the twelve months before. Year-over-year change is shown on each figure.
| Metric | Value | Year over year |
|---|---|---|
| Median sold price | US$403,000 (about MX$7.3M) | ▲ +8.3% |
| Median price per m² | US$3,882 | ▼ -1.8% |
| Median days on market | 232 days | ▲ +45.0% |
| Existing-home supply (resale) | 20.8 months | not pre-construction |
| Blended supply (all listings) | 30.1 months | inflated by pre-construction |
| Sold above asking price | 11% | of settled sales |
| Residential closings (12 months) | 1,340 | ▲ +17.8% |
| Pre-construction share of active listings | 50% | off-plan, not yet built |
| Pre-construction share of closings | 28% | of the past year |
The bay is cooling in buyers’ favour. The median price rose +8.3%, but that reflects a shift toward larger units: value per m² was roughly flat and time to sell jumped +45.0%. Inventory keeps building, led by a wave of pre-construction, while foreign demand stays steady but patient. Good, well-priced homes still sell. Everything else sits. Median sale prices are mix-sensitive and reflect what sold, not pure appreciation.
Price and volume by quarter
The most recent complete quarters (through Q2 2026), bay-wide. The median sold price cooled from its early-2026 peak while sales volume stayed strong.
| Quarter | Median sold price | Homes sold |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2024 | US$429,000 | 112 |
| Q3 2024 | US$345,000 | 149 |
| Q4 2024 | US$377,000 | 200 |
| Q1 2025 | US$393,000 | 310 |
| Q2 2025 | US$361,000 | 424 |
| Q3 2025 | US$390,000 | 305 |
| Q4 2025 | US$420,000 | 343 |
| Q1 2026 | US$422,000 | 326 |
| Q2 2026 | US$380,000 | 367 |
The pre-construction effect
Of every listing shown as “active” in the bay, a large share is pre-construction: units sold off-plan that will not deliver for one to three years. Counting them as available supply badly overstates the glut. About 50% of active listings are pre-construction, and 28% of the past year’s closings were. Roughly 1,571 units are scheduled to deliver through 2028.
| Delivery year | Units scheduled |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 78 |
| 2026 | 618 |
| 2027 | 581 |
| 2028 | 372 |
Pre-construction closes at about US$4,102/m² versus US$3,693/m² for existing homes, a 11% new-build premium, and it sits far longer as a listing: a median 373 days against 199 for resale. Buyers can use the new-build pipeline as leverage on price and timing. Sellers of existing homes should price to their own market, below new-build per m².
What your budget buys
What actually changed hands at each budget over the past year: typical interior size, bedrooms, how often it came with an ocean view, and where most of it sold.
| Budget | Typical size | Beds | Ocean view | Share of sales | Where most sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under US$300k | 66 m² | 2 bed | 8% | 413 (31%) | Versalles, Centro |
| US$300k to 500k | 102 m² | 2 bed | 20% | 443 (33%) | Marina, Romantic Zone |
| US$500k to 1M | 147 m² | 2 bed | 50% | 366 (27%) | Marina, Romantic Zone |
| US$1M and up | 274 m² | 3 bed | 77% | 118 (9%) | Marina, Conchas Chinas |
| Bedrooms | Median sold price | Share of sales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 bedroom | US$315,000 | 19% |
| 2 bedroom | US$400,000 | 44% |
| 3+ bedroom | US$600,000 | 33% |
The two-bedroom condo is the workhorse of the bay: 44% of all sales at a median US$400,000.
Negotiation and time to sell
In a buyer’s market the real questions are how much sellers give up and how long homes take. Here is the honest spread, not just the median.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Homes that sell below asking price | 67% |
| Median cut from first asking price to sold | 5.2% |
| Homes that sell within 90 days | 12% |
| Homes still unsold after a year | 29% |
| Days on market, fastest quarter (25th percentile) | 132 days |
| Days on market, median | 232 days |
| Days on market, slowest quarter (75th percentile) | 395 days |
| Ocean-view premium per m² | +33% |
| Sales paid in cash (where financing is recorded) | ~91% |
Price at, or just under, the last real comparable and you draw the 12% who move fast. Chase the market from above and you join the 29% still sitting a year later. In this bay, patience is not a strategy. Pricing is.
By community
Each area year over year, with the buyer-facing supply number (existing homes, not pre-construction), median days on market, pre-construction share, and typical monthly HOA. Where a headline supply number looks high, it is usually pre-construction towers inflating it, not soft demand for existing homes.
| Community | Median sold | YoY | Price/m² | Median DOM | Existing supply | Pre-construction | HOA/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romantic Zone | US$425,000 | ▼ -4.9% | US$5,231 | 213 days | 12.8 mo | 54% | MX$6,600 |
| Centro + 5 de Diciembre | US$357,000 | ▼ -5.6% | US$3,896 | 180 days | 12.8 mo | 59% | MX$5,500 |
| Conchas Chinas | US$978,000 | ▲ +2.9% | US$5,182 | 190 days | 16.2 mo | 5% | MX$12,400 |
| Amapas | US$725,000 | ▲ +7.4% | US$4,312 | 181 days | 16.9 mo | 53% | MX$11,350 |
| Marina Vallarta + Hotel Zone | US$510,000 | ▲ +34.2% | US$4,178 | 321 days | 22.4 mo | 66% | MX$7,350 |
| Versalles + Fluvial | US$329,000 | ▼ -7.1% | US$3,372 | 274 days | 13.0 mo | 69% | MX$4,300 |
The real cost of owning
Fideicomiso. Within the coastal restricted zone, foreigners hold property through a bank trust called a fideicomiso, renewable and inheritable, with a modest annual fee. It is normal, safe, and how most buyers in this report own their homes.
Closing costs. Budget roughly 5 to 8% of the price for closing: acquisition tax, notary, trust set-up, and registration, paid by the buyer. On a US$403,000 home that is about US$26,200, give or take.
Carrying it. The HOA figures above, plus property tax (predial) that is low by US and Canadian standards, and trust and insurance. All reviewed with you before you ever write an offer.
How to read your own street
The Bay Report is the bay-wide picture. For your specific building, street, and budget, ask Vivi, our AI concierge, or request a free market evaluation reviewed personally by Alan Muchantef, AMPI member broker.
This information is deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. The information herein provided has been made available by the Flexmls IDX System and may not be the listing of the provider. Based on information from the AMPI/Regional MLS for the period August 2025 through August 2026. Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS.
License: These aggregate statistics may be quoted or republished with attribution to Vallarta Seaside Properties and a link to this page. Underlying MLS listing data is not redistributed.
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